Legal Risks Could Block Revenue

Legal challenges present another major hurdle. Most Supreme Court justices appeared skeptical in recent arguments about Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose global tariffs.

The Tax Foundation estimates that up to 75% of new tariff revenue could be struck down if the court rules against the administration.

“If the Supreme Court says the bulk of the tariffs are illegal, that could throw a wrench in the tariff rebate plan,” said Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation.

Investors and economists are therefore cautious about counting on $2,000 tariff dividend checks in 2026.

“We’ve learned that late night Truth Socials are not a direct line to reality,” said Bob Elliott, CEO and CIO at Unlimited, an alternative investment firm.