Things to Watch / Uncertainties
The official announcement is expected by mid-October (often October 24) based on release of the September CPI data.
Because the COLA depends on inflation data through September, any surprise inflation spike or drop could alter the final figure.
Medicare Part B and Part D premium changes could erode the net gain from the COLA for many recipients. Some beneficiaries could even “lose” if their premium increase is large.
There are longstanding proposals or internal SSA memos to reduce the COLA computation or adjust indexation (for example, beginning December 2026, to reduce the annual COLA by 0.5 percentage point per a provision in SSA documents).
Social Security
The COLA mechanism itself is under scrutiny; some critics argue the CPI-W measure underestimates inflation faced by seniors (particularly costs like healthcare, housing, and energy).
Side-by-Side: 2025 vs Projected 2026
| Feature | 2025 COLA | Projected 2026 COLA |
|---|---|---|
| Announced Rate | 2.5% | 2.7% (current consensus) |
| Average monthly boost | ~$50 (for typical retiree) | ~$54 (estimate) |
| Beneficiaries affected | ~72.5+ million beneficiaries (SS + SSI) | Same recipients (SS + SSI), with automatic increase if COLA set |
| Effective date | January 1, 2025 | January 1, 2026 |
| Risks / off-sets | Medicare premium increases may erode gains | Larger risk of premium hikes offsetting or exceeding the increase |
| Uncertainty | Set and known | Depends on inflation, CPI release, policy changes |
So, while 2026’s COLA is expected to be a bit higher than 2025’s, the net uplift many people actually see could be modest or muted by rising healthcare costs and other offsets.
5 Responses
guess I have to save for another year to get my private jet (LOL)
Our government should be ashamed of the minute increase they are ‘giving’ us with our money. They never blink to give billions to a country that would p– on us if we were on fire.
2.7% in today’s economy won’t substantially feed a retired couple for a day or two, especially after they take the raise out faster than they put it in to pay Medicare. The saddest part is that too many are getting Medicare who never put in a penny and are receiving maximum benefits.
This is a disgrace, abused, a joke, and a shame that we get insulted with this 2.7%…..when they are getting interest from the money they had collected when we were working. The minimum we should get is 5% for our Seniors of all the money we gave you through our whole life. Trump love to give money to countries like Argentina…that is our taxes. You fool.
I am tired of hearing people complain about the way things are. You get what you voted for! If you don’t like what is happening than stop complaining and vote the people out of office who have so little regard for the welfare of senior citizens. Don’t say this not about politics because it is and the day many of us realize it the sooner, we will see the changes you would like to see.
Definitely a shameful amount for those of us who are struggling to keep up with inflation. Also shameful is the fact that we are paying so much in taxes to aid and abet the millions of illegal aliens who suck the air out of us with free medical, schooling etc…