President Donald Trump has pledged to deliver $2,000 tariff rebate checks next year, sparking hope among millions of Americans struggling with rising costs.

“We’ve taken in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariff money. We’re going to be issuing dividends… probably the middle of next year, a little bit later than that, of thousands of dollars for individuals of moderate income, middle income,” Trump said Monday.

Although Trump frames these payments as nearly guaranteed, experts warn that major, perhaps insurmountable, obstacles remain.

Economists tell CNN that it is unlikely the federal government will distribute $2,000 checks in 2026 unless the U.S. economy faces a significant downturn.

“It’s highly unlikely there is some sort of stimulus check sent out next year. I would be pretty shocked,” said Scott Lincicome, vice president of general economics at the Cato Institute, in a phone interview.

Prediction markets seem skeptical, too. Users on Polymarket assign only an 11% chance that a tariff dividend will materialize by March 31.