The Numbers Don’t Add Up

One of the biggest hurdles is simple math: the proposed payments may exceed available revenue.

Trump’s new tariffs are expected to generate $158.4 billion in 2025 and $207.5 billion in 2026, according to the Tax Foundation. However, the cost of distributing rebate checks could easily surpass these figures.

The Tax Foundation modeled three potential designs for tariff dividends, and all scenarios would exceed projected revenues.

For example, if payments were limited to tax filers and spouses with an income cap of $100,000, the total cost would reach $279.8 billion — $121 billion more than projected 2025 tariff revenue. At the high end, if checks extended to non-filers, spouses, and dependents, costs could soar to $606.8 billion, nearly double the combined 2025–2026 revenue.

“This is like the magic money tree. You just go to it anytime you need money. Of course, that’s not reality,” Lincicome said.